TURNING BROWN EYES BLUE

Barely a week has gone by since I had a total shoulder replacement but I am already able to type fluidly on a remote keyboard. The shoulder is the latest technology, made of metal and plastic, and is indicative of other parts that may eventually be replaceable. In this connection there is a story today about a doctor who has developed a technique that can turn brown eyes blue by using a laser. The laser essentially burns away brown pigmentation, but the process cannot be done in reverse so that eye color cannot be changed back. Brown is the default state in nature but there are about five hundred million people with blue eyes, all descended from a single ancestor who had a genetic mutation 10,000 years ago. They may soon be joined by others using this process.

Our bodies are becoming increasingly malleable as medical science progresses and it will be interesting to see what else can be changed. This will be accompanied by more genetic programming of the fetus to be rid of childhood diseases, if you view it positively, or produce "designer babies" if you view it negatively, and many ailments that plague us later in life may be attenuated in advance rather than through subsequent treatments. This will mean healthier and longer lives for those coming into the world. The rest of us will have to settle for medical attention, whether through drugs or surgery.

The only problem with these developments is the cost and who is going to pay for it. Logically a life-threatening organ replacement should be covered; a cosmetic procedure like changing eye color should not. Such continued advances will occur unless the government interferes with them and decides what constitutes health care for everyone. But whatever changes occur physically, imperfect human nature will remain the same in the brief moment in which our species has existed.

SHAKESPEARE WROTE HIS PLAYS

There is a movie being advertised that is based on the premise that Shakespeare did not write his plays but instead was a front man for someone more sophisticated, presumably the Earl of Oxford. This is an old theory that might work as fiction but it is not history. Indeed the film makers are doing to Shakespeare what he himself often did to historical figures- fabricating nonsense to make good drama. The theory is based on the assumption that someone with Shakespeare's ordinary, middling background could not have written so well.

But Shakespeare in fact is relatively middle-brow, and certainly in his own time, produced popular entertainment. But as the language has become more and more antiquated, and thus more difficult, it has been lifted to an intellectual level that is not there. I have often thought that non-English speakers may get a better read on Shakespeare because it is unlikely that he would be translated into arcane language.

Shakespeare had an undeniable gift for language and the stage, but this does not require a higher education and there is nothing miraculous about this. What does show through is a vague understanding of history that is not well-developed. When Shakespeare relies on sources like Plutarch he is relatively on the mark in, say, Julius Caesar, or Antony and Cleopatra. His historical figures are otherwise pretty consistently distorted, i.e. Richard III was not a hunchback, and often reflect Tudor propaganda.

Shakespeare is one of the most well-known persons in history even though parts of his life may be obscure, but the absence of information does not support fanciful conjecture. Given the passage of enough time things that we know to be true today may become hazy in future reference. Shakespeare had remarkable gifts, but his work does not require that he be an aristocrat. Shakespeare wrote his plays.

DON'T DRIVE IN NEW YORK

It now costs $11.50 to enter New York City from anywhere further west and that will soon rise to $15.00. Imagine having to pay that every day. Never mind that the bridges and tunnels being tolled have long since been paid off. Once you enter the city, due to the anti-car mentality of the Bloomberg administration, there is virtually no free parking any more but plenty of bike lanes. To park on the street you have to pay the meter, or otherwise park in an exorbitantly expensive garage. It's not as bad as London but it's getting there. Where I live there is unnecessary alternate side parking four days a week, which means you have to go out and move the car every day or otherwise double-park for hours for the few minutes that the street sweeper actually passes by. Then there are the exclusive bus lanes, which leaves one lane open for everything else, and a heavy fine if you're caught intruding, although cabs constantly fly in and out of the lanes. The message is clear. Cars are not welcome even if they are sometimes necessary. This all may seem strange to the rest of the country, but you've been warned- don't drive in New York.

AIR TRAVEL TODAY

I can remember a time when travel used to be fun. It was once possible to take a helicopter run by New York Airways to the airport from atop the Pan Am building near Grand Central Station in midtown Manhattan. Everything about jet airline travel then was “futuristic;” the airport, the aircraft, even the attire of the stewardesses. Now everything seems dismally past. The city banned the helicopter, Pan Am is gone (now the MetLife building), and routine travel has become an inconvenient ordeal. Once there was no onerous security screening and you could roam freely. It was also easy to catch a last minute flight. I remember one time missing a flight on American Airlines. I was able to simply walk over to United Airlines using the same ticket and catch their next flight to the same destination. There were also more direct, nonstop flights. Now you have to go through a “hub” and often wait around to change planes, hoping your luggage also made the same transfer.

The days of convenience and service are long gone. Once the airlines all provided meals and snacks, and baggage was considered an integral part of the trip- so much so that it would never have occurred to anyone to describe it as free. Now the airlines impose additional charges for every conceivable item, and ticket prices have been substantially inflated to the point, where, on my last ticket purchase taxes and fees were one-third of the price. A good deal of this has come about because of enhanced “security,” the passage through which can be a major nuisance. (I’m sure I could find a million other people who’d love to join me in stomping the “shoe bomber” to death).

Overall this is one area where life was definitely better thirty to forty years ago, and actually more modern. Something has gone terribly wrong with aerospace. Back then we were walking on the moon. Now we can’t even get to the International Space Station on our own. Then the future seemed a sure bet to be even better, with ever increasing improvements. Instead everything is essentially the same in many respects and far worse in others. Anyone who has lived through this regression cannot fail to be disappointed. Where once a trip to the airport was an occasion for wondrous joy, now we try an avoid flying as much as possible. We need to take a really hard look at this situation and come up with some solutions that will at least get us back to where we were, if not better.

PRIVATIZING SOCIAL SECURITY?

At various times there have been proposals put forth to privatize Social Security and/or invest proceeds in the stock market. This is a nonstarter, both politically as well as logically. Rick Perry may be an appealing candidate, and aspects of Social Security may in fact resemble a Ponzi scheme, but he has simply handed Democrats the perennial fearful campaign club of wanting to get rid of Social Security. This has been a dream of many libertarians, but it is factually untenable. The market has gone nowhere over the past ten years, and losses are quite possible even with “secure” blue chip investments; just look at GM or Citibank. When your 401(k) has gone nowhere in ten years it is sobering and necessitates a reconsideration of potential Social Security changes.

This does not mean that Social Security is not in need of some reform, such as amending the cost of living adjustment, but the fact is that Social Security is not in that much trouble. It is Medicare that is the big problem in terms of covering projected costs. Social Security is solvent and only needs minor adjustments to stay that way.

People should definitely save and invest for retirement, but through their own private accounts, such as IRAs, as they do now. These are tax advantaged and more should be done to encourage people to establish these accounts. Longer term the stock market should yield a good return, but there is no guarantee. Social Security is more like a basic floor, on top of which other resources should be prudently accumulated. Certainly Social Security can provide a better return through compounded interest over time to everyone’s account, but the stock market is too unstable to be a serious alternative for Social Security trust funds.

NEVER FORGET

These were taken from a ferry headed to Ellis Island for an engagement I had there. I have many photos of the towers under construction at various stages I used to take from a pier in Brooklyn, and I'll post them when I find them. There are so many memories from the foundation of the towers, to many meetings in the buildings, dinners and drinks on the top floor, and of the sweeping view of New York harbor, not to mention the small church where I was married, which was obliterated.

Ten years on and 9/11 resonates just as painfully as it did in 2001. It is a wound that may never heal, even with the death of Bin Laden, as the struggle continues to play itself out. 9/11 is a dividing line in time, from which there is a clear before and after. I recall the night of the millennium and how magnificent celebrations around the world occurred without the slightest thought of terrorism. The innocence of that moment is gone forever, as we live in a world of unending wariness and security precautions previously unimaginable. In this there is no end in sight as we must remain ever vigilant, even as we have largely decimated Al Qaeda and the city and country bounced back. The cost in blood and treasure has been enormous, as war continues in remote outposts in Afghanistan. So much of the burden of our security rests on so few shoulders, unlike past conflicts, and indeed never have so many owed so much to so few. We must never forget the front line troops and their sacrifice, and all those innocents who perished on that awful day. Thus we must keep those images vividly in mind, as awful as they are, so that we never forget. It is not something to "put behind us," as some would have it, bu to remember always. Never forget.

YOU CAN'T GET AWAY FROM IT

There are serious warnings about a potential terrorist attack as we approach the anniversary of 9/11, which resonates strongly here in New York. When, where, or how is unknown, but clearly a high degree of alertness is warranted. Hopefully the perpetrators will be apprehended and stopped before they can strike, as has happened many times before. But as Margaret Thatcher once said, we have to be right every time; the terrorists only have to be right once. That said, where you are when something bad happens is purely a matter of luck in being at the wrong place at the wrong time.

Some people move, or think about moving to get away from everything. In these parts no place is farther away from it all than upstate New York or Vermont. Yet these very places are still struggling with floods caused by excessive rainfall, with all the attendant inconveniences like lack of power and ruined possessions. Who would ever have thought that a hurricane could impact Vermont, or that upstate could be seriously flooded? If you aren’t safe from perils there it’s hard to think of anywhere you can be. In Texas the opposite conditions prevail, with drought and wildfires burning out of control. The point is that disaster can strike anywhere, and the extent you are affected or threatened is purely chance- of being at the wrong place at the wrong time. Why does a hurricane land in one place and not another? Why is one area impacted while another remains undisturbed? There is just no way to know. Of course there are places where such events are more likely and building and rebuilding in their wake makes no sense, but as to what can happen unexpectedly at any given moment we are largely clueless.

But the same is true of good things, like winning the lottery, because, as they say, “hey, you never know.” If there’s any solace in all of this it is that while you’re unlikely to win the lottery, you’re also unlikely to be at the center of a calamity. There are always some very lucky people for whom everything goes right, just as there are some very unfortunate people who experience the worst of things. However, most of us will never likely experience either extreme, but at most will endure inconveniences in life. So next time you grumble about a power glitch or an airline trip think of those who have lost everything, including their lives, and consider yourself fortunate, if not lucky.

OF NATURE AND THE PAST

As I write this a hurricane is approaching New York. There was an earthquake on Tuesday that radiated from Virginia all the way to Canada and shook New York City, although it wasn’t felt where I’m currently located, on sandy Long Island. The hurricane likely will be felt, and all of this is a reminder of the precariousness of life on earth, given the forces of nature. In the comfortable cocoon that civilization provides us we tend to forget how insulated we have become. Only when natural disaster strikes does it register how savage the natural world is, because most of the time the storms, floods, earthquakes, and tsunamis happen somewhere else. People who live closest to nature, such as farmers, have few illusions about it. Those with a more romantic view are urbanites, largely clueless as to reality and perils of the natural world.

Some similarly romanticize the past, and think it would be nice to live in a different era, when things were perhaps simpler. It is true one could go back a few decades and still be comfortable, but further beyond that, not much more than a century, and the inconveniences would be overwhelming. The smells alone would be intolerable to a modern person. Think of life without electricity, indoor plumbing, toilet paper, refrigeration; never mind the Internet. Think of life with exposure to diseases now vanquished, when more than half of children born would not survive to adulthood, along with the ever present threat of war, famine, and pestilence.

There is a window beyond which we would find ourselves very uncomfortable, and it is likely our descendants would find our present equally unpalatable. For we are of our place and time whether we like it or not, just as our ancestors were of their place and time. We are part of the world we live in, and but one stop on a procession of generations that stretches backward and forward in time.

ECONOMY AND SOCIETY IN 2011

These are the gloomiest times we have seen since the Carter years. This is confirmed by survey after survey showing a lack of faith in institutions, a lack of confidence in the future, and dismal economic statistics. The stock market dropped 450 points last week, or 1300 so far this month and 2000 for the year, wiping out $3 trillion in wealth. The previous week the market finished its wildest week in history, with four 400 point or more daily swings in a row. Though a lot of this was pure silliness, and an overreaction to the slightest scrap of news, mostly from overseas, it is clear the economic fundamentals are not good. Unemployment is over 9% and underemployment is 18% plus. One in five males are out of work, with profound social consequences.

Gold is up 30% for the year. What does it say when gold is a better investment than productive assets that would actually provide growth? There is fear and uncertainty across the land. 47% believe the future is only going to get worse, 73% say the U.S. is on the wrong track, while the number of people satisfied with the way things are going has hit a new low at 11%. Deficits are running at 10% of GDP, with debt over 100%. In short the economic outlook is bleak.

There is an even chance the economy is tanking again as anemic growth sputters towards a double dip recession. We are constantly bombarded with a frenzy of bargains deals to try and increase sales without much effect. Yet despite so much slack in the economy prices are rising and may get worse thanks to all the money the Federal Reserve has pumped into the economy. So far the government response has been, if anything, counterproductive. The last time I used the title Economy and Society was in 2009, ending with the question what if it (the then proposed trillion dollar stimulus) doesn’t work? Clearly it didn’t work and government policies have brought us to our current circumstances.

The news from Europe is even worse, souring markets around the world, as countries struggle with debt problems and their banks appear shaky. But in the big picture what is really going on is a wave across the western world, as the realization begins to set in that unsustainable spending, borrowing, and entitlements cannot continue without sufficient population growth. This is not really news as it has been predicted for years, but unfortunately governments ignored the problem and failed to deal with long-term arrangements, instead reacting to short-term, day to day headlines. Now they are running out of options.

Given chronic government mismanagement there is nothing a change in policies would not correct by, i.e. returning to balanced budgets and sound money. Everything will not go down the tubes unless we let that happen. It is still within our power to correct these conditions, if the vision and will can be found. For the question is whether we still believe in the future, or whether we will bury our heads like the Europeans and slowly fade away. Americans are usually the most optimistic of peoples, and that dormant positive outlook needs to be rekindled. Unless we think the world is going to end, things will turn around sooner or later, depending on when we take the right actions. Economic forecasting is about as reliable weather forecasting so dire predictions need not trouble us. There are always gloom predictors and boom predictors, but most of the time we manage to muddle through somewhere in the middle, as neither the very worst or the very best often happens.

US ECONOMY AND THE WORLD

Vladimir Putin described the United States as a “parasite” on the world economy due to the pre-eminence of the dollar, which presumably provides certain advantages. This comes from someone late to the world economic party, considering that Russia still can’t even qualify for the World Trade Organization and remains an economic backwater. But then Putin is nostalgic for the Soviet Union, the Cold War, and great power status. He thinks by being antagonistic to the US he elevates Russia, but no one wants to play his game on this end. The long-suffering Russian people deserve better than the gangster government they have, and attempting to deflect blame for life’s miseries via ultra-nationalism will not rescue a grossly mismanaged state. Given that he’s not exactly buff he should also keep his shirt on.

It is easy to understand resentment of American dominance, although this comes at the expense of no other country. Indeed in all of history there has never been a more benevolent world power. Since World War II the American military has kept the world at relative peace not only for the US but for everyone else, thus providing stability and prosperity. This has come at huge cost to the American people, and the US has the burden of carrying a load for the world in other areas as well. The American economy is still the engine driving the world economy, and if it sputters so does everyone else. Americans are also subsidizing the rest of the world in terms of innovation across the board, but particularly in health via new cures and drugs. For example, the Nobel Prizes in medicine has been awarded to more Americans than to researchers in all other countries combined. Eight of the 10 top-selling drugs in the world were developed by U.S. companies. With this, however, come all the development costs, which are largely born by the US market. So the US is hardly “leeching” on the world economy but rather is carrying a heavy burden.

But the extent to which American problems are displaced across the world can be overstated. The stock market dropped over 700 points this week not due to anything domestic but rather because of fear of defaults and economic collapse in Europe. So while markets crashed and even gold went down, where did money from around the world flow? To US Treasuries, for safety and security, actually driving down the yield. In this context the S&P downgrade of US debt from AAA makes no sense. True the government has to rein in borrowing and cut back on debt, but that process will work itself out. The momentum is all in the direction of cutting spending and debt reduction over time. The economy may be doing poorly at the moment, in no small measure due to the federal government, but this will be set right. After all change is coming; change you can believe in.