12 November 2016


Donald Trump is going to be the next President of the United States, and no matter what your feelings about that, his achievement is astonishing. A more improbable candidate is hard to imagine, yet he managed to defeat 16 good candidates for the Republican nomination, and, against all odds and expectations, then went on to win the general election. He managed to do this without the full support of some in the party, without an extensive ground operation, and in spite of a hostile media, elements of which went so far as outright collusion with the Democratic campaign. He was vastly outspent and virtually the entire establishment was aligned against him. As a result, he will enter office unencumbered by obligations to special interests and  unbeholden to anyone other than the people who elected him. 

His victory was a stunning rejection of elites across the board, as he was propelled to office by people who have lost faith in major institutions. The establishment that gravitated towards Hillary Clinton and the status quo was soundly rebuked in an election where the change candidate came from the right. The Democrats and their media allies, concentrated on the coasts, completely missed the undercurrent of anger and despair across most of the rest of the country. What little credibility the mainstream media had left has evaporated. They got it all wrong. 

Some of the losers are putting forward a ridiculously dark picture that is never going to materialize. Those who opposed Trump should realize that his election is not the apocalypse. The opposition expressing fear and anguish should understand that if the government finally succeeds in addressing long-standing problems everyone benefits. That will now possible as gridlock finally ends given that the Republicans now control the House, the Senate, the Presidency, and most state governments. They must produce now, as there can be no excuse for failure. But they should also not make the same mistake the Democrats did with Obamacare, when they completely froze out Republicans. Major legislation that seriously changes things can only come about if it comes from consensus and involves the other party to assure continuity. The new administration and congress must accept the mantle they have been given with humility. 

The notion that a slight loss of the raw, popular vote makes the new administration illegitimate is ridiculous. Democrats had no problem with the Electoral College as long as it gave them a huge big-state advantage starting out. In addition Republicans won the congressional elections by three million votes and clearly have a mandate for change. Ironically incessant speculation about the collapse of the Republican party prior to the election now clearly applies instead to the Democrats. In the worst case, if the radical left now stirring gains control of the party they will be out of power for a long time. 

We are all exhausted by the endless campaign that culminated in the results on election day. The way elections are conducted in the US needs serious reform as I have argued repeatedly. At a minimum we must limit the campaign season along the lines of how elections are conducted in Great Britain. Nominations and campaigning should be limited to a few months, not two years. No one wants this kind of electoral process to continue save for the media which benefits from it immensely in terms of advertising revenue as well as “news” coverage. 

In terms of international commitments nothing is going to change that radically. Trump simply wants a better deal. He is a dealmaker, which means he is not an ideologue since making a deal necessarily involves give and take or compromise. I believe this will be his approach across the board and seemingly extreme statements are more akin to establishing a bargaining position. The US is not going to withdraw from the world or start a trade war that would benefit no one, and I believe that mutually beneficial trade deals will continue to be negotiated. At this stage it would behoove everyone to do as both Hillary Clinton and President Obama suggested- keep an open mind.